Development of scenarios is only a starting point for strategic planning, and the latter issue is not dealt with in this article. Nevertheless, scenarios are an indispensable and creative mechanism that produces what is known as “interesting research” 9 (that which is innovative and more likely to produce learning), broadens thinking about future possibilities, and helps to prevent group-think. 8 The latter point is actually as much a benefit as a criticism, since the objective of scenario exercises is to stimulate thinking about a diverse range of possibilities. There is some criticism about scenarios methods: there are many pitfalls in developing them, 7 and the employment of different techniques can lead to diverging future constructs. The trigger can be external, demographic, technological, ideological, or any other potential development capable of having a major impact if the weak signal were to become markedly stronger. It involves the systematic detection and identification of weak signals 6 and emerging trends and considers their potential to become triggers of major change. ![]() “Horizon scanning” focuses on emergent issues that might gain strength in the future and lead to systemic change. The factors influencing the future can be identified through methods known as “trends impact” and “horizon scanning.” 5 “Trends impact” focuses primarily on identifying existing and continuing currents that could influence the future. The matrix of four scenarios is derived from combinations of the extreme values for those two factors. 4 Two variables are identified as having the strongest potential impact on the future. The 2x2 matrix method lays down a structured process to develop scenarios. 3 The basic concept evolved from business practitioners, with the most famous method being the matrix introduced by Royal Dutch Shell and refined later in Global Business Network (GBN). Scenario development is one of the most popular methodologies to investigate the future, and various methods have been developed to build and map scenarios. Accelerating changes in recent years, including massive increases in the amount, variety, and tempo of information available, the rate of technological advances, climate change, and the interconnectivity and interdependencies between distant geographical locations further increase the level of uncertainty regarding the future. Rather, it is a landscape created through a combination of change and continuity, and so there is a high probability of departing from at least some currently dominant trends. The forecast aims at “calculating or predicting (some future event or condition) usually as a result of study and analysis of available pertinent data.” 2 But the distant future is hardly a singular event. The further one seeks to gaze into the future, the less useful forecast techniques become. Understanding Analytical Tools for Thinking About the Futures Any errors in this work are the authors’ alone. Steven Kenney of the Middle East Institute for their important advice and thoughtful input on the monumental task of thinking about the future. ![]() Elisha Stoin of Israel’s Ministry of Intelligence, and Mr. David Shedd, former acting director of the U.S. Finally, the article concludes with several key takeaways for Israeli decision makers.Īuthors' note: We would like to thank Mr. Then, on the basis of the first two sections, four scenarios elaborate some distinctly different pathways that the Middle East might take to 2030. Therefore, this article refrains from attempts at prophecy but deals instead with “thinking about the future.” It opens with an analytical framework for scenario development, supplemented by “trends impact” and “horizon scanning.” The second section studies “the futures of the past,” in terms of what we might learn about the pitfalls of future projection and scenario-building from those outlining possible futures for 2020 from years past. 1 It assessed the likelihood of an infectious disease outbreak or instability in the global energy market as relatively unlikely, even though both ended up happening less than two months after the report’s publication. One need look no further than the World Economic Forum’s report on global risks published in January 2020. Long-term and detailed strategic predictions are a thankless task and are often doomed to failure. The following article addresses the question of how the Middle East might develop in the coming decade.
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